Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Valmiera / BSS vs Spartaks Jurmala — Virsliga 2019

Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
CANC
15:00
Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
8/8/2021VirsligaVirsliga · Round 19Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Valmiera / BSS59%
×Draw21%
Spartaks Jurmala20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valmiera / BSS
2.02
Spartaks Jurmala
1.09

Valmiera / BSS creates 85% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 52 away

creates per match

Valmiera / BSS
1.97
Spartaks Jurmala
1.29

allows per match

Valmiera / BSS
0.90
Spartaks Jurmala
2.06

finishing

Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par
Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valmiera / BSS ↓

Spartaks Jurmala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Valmiera / BSS or draw
80%
Valmiera / BSS or Spartaks Jurmala
79%
Draw or Spartaks Jurmala
41%

Winning margin

Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+
35%
Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals
87%
Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals
60%
Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals
33%
Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
66%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
30%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)
75%
Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valmiera / BSS at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.90 · 87 matches

Spartaks Jurmala away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.97 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.02

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.29 + Valmiera / BSS defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Valmiera / BSS scores more
59%
level
21%
Spartaks Jurmala scores more
20%

Valmiera / BSS at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valmiera / BSS face Spartaks Jurmala (Virsliga)

Virsliga returns with Valmiera / BSS hosting Spartaks Jurmala. Match starts August 8, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Valmiera / BSS host Spartaks Jurmala at Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.