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Spartaks Jurmala vs Valmiera / BSS — Virsliga 2019

Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
CANC
11:00
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
10/3/2021VirsligaVirsliga · Round 32Slokas Stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Spartaks Jurmala31%
×Draw23%
Valmiera / BSS46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartaks Jurmala
1.39
Valmiera / BSS
1.75

Valmiera / BSS creates 26% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 87 away

creates per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.63
Valmiera / BSS
1.71

allows per match

Spartaks Jurmala
1.78
Valmiera / BSS
1.15

finishing

Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par
Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartaks Jurmala ↓

Valmiera / BSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spartaks Jurmala or draw
54%
Spartaks Jurmala or Valmiera / BSS
77%
Draw or Valmiera / BSS
69%

Winning margin

Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
14%
Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
75%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
40%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
16%
Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals
83%
Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals
52%
Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
40%
Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartaks Jurmala at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

Valmiera / BSS away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.15 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.63 + Valmiera / BSS defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Valmiera / BSS attack 1.71 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartaks Jurmala scores more
31%
level
23%
Valmiera / BSS scores more
46%

Valmiera / BSS at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spartaks Jurmala face Valmiera / BSS (Virsliga)

Virsliga returns with Spartaks Jurmala hosting Valmiera / BSS. Match starts October 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Spartaks Jurmala host Valmiera / BSS at Slokas Stadionā.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.