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Valmiera / BSS vs Cēsis — Cup 2020

Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Cēsis
Cēsis
Y. Omori 70'
D. Cepelevs 63', 58'
N. Savalnieks 45', 28'
O. Stupelis 41'
5/16/2025CupCup · 1st RoundVidzemes Olimpiskais centrs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Valmiera / BSS87%
×Draw8%
Cēsis5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valmiera / BSS
3.80
Cēsis
0.86

Valmiera / BSS creates 342% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Valmiera / BSS
3.44
Cēsis
0.83

allows per match

Valmiera / BSS
0.89
Cēsis
4.17

finishing

Valmiera / BSS+0.00on par
Cēsis+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valmiera / BSS ↓

Cēsis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Valmiera / BSS or draw
95%
Valmiera / BSS or Cēsis
92%
Draw or Cēsis
13%

Winning margin

Valmiera / BSS wins by 2+
72%
Cēsis wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Valmiera / BSS 1+ goals
98%
Valmiera / BSS 2+ goals
88%
Valmiera / BSS 3+ goals
70%
Cēsis 1+ goals
58%
Cēsis 2+ goals
21%
Cēsis 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Valmiera / BSS (draw refunded)
95%
Cēsis (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valmiera / BSS at home — creates 3.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Cēsis away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valmiera / BSS attack 3.44 + Cēsis defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.80

Cēsis attack 0.83 + Valmiera / BSS defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Valmiera / BSS scores more
87%
level
8%
Cēsis scores more
5%

Valmiera / BSS at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Valmiera / BSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
N. Savalnieks
41'
O. Stupelis↳ E. Maurs-Boks
45'
N. Savalnieks
58'
D. Cepelevs
63'
D. Cepelevs↳ N. Savalnieks
70'
Y. Omori

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valmiera / BSS vs Cēsis

Valmiera / BSS beat Cēsis 6-0 in Cup on May 16, 2025.

Goals: N. Savalnieks (28', 45'), O. Stupelis (41'), D. Cepelevs (58', 63'), Y. Omori (70').

The match was played at Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs in Valmiera.