Valls 0–3 Terrassa: Result & Stats

Valls

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Terrassa

Alejandro Agüera 89' (OG)

Salva Torreño 37'

Jaume Pascual 31'

10/18/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 1Estadi Municipal del Vilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valls23%

×Draw29%

Terrassa47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VallsExpected goals in this matchTerrassa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.25

Valls

0.79

Terrassa

1.25

Terrassa creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

0.73

creates per match

1.36

1.13

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Valls

0.73

Terrassa

1.36

allows per match

Valls

1.13

Terrassa

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valls+0.00on par

Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valls ↓

Terrassa →

0–013%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Valls or draw

53%

Valls or Terrassa

71%

Draw or Terrassa

77%

Winning margin

Valls wins by 2+

Terrassa wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Valls 1+ goals

55%

Valls 2+ goals

19%

Valls 3+ goals

Terrassa 1+ goals

71%

Terrassa 2+ goals

36%

Terrassa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Valls (draw refunded)

33%

Terrassa (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valls at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valls attack 0.73 + Terrassa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.79

Terrassa attack 1.36 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Valls scores more

23%

level

29%

Terrassa scores more

47%

Terrassa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Jaume Pascual

37'

Salva Torreño

39'

Manu González← Nono

58'

Sergio Giralte← Joel Marigot

62'

Adri Lledó← Kilian Villaverde

62'

Pau Morer← Jaume Pascual

73'

Ramón Miranda← Cesc Martínez

73'

Sergi Gomez← Marc Guasch

73'

Albert Plana← Xavi Fabra

80'

Oscar Pérez← Sergi Gestí

80'

Albert Lopez← Josu Rodríguez

89'

Alejandro AgüeraOwn goal

Valls

Terrassa

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Joan Pallarés

58'▲Sergio Giralte←▼Joel Marigot

73'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Cesc Martínez

73'▲Sergi Gomez←▼Marc Guasch

73'▲Albert Plana←▼Xavi Fabra

80'▲Oscar Pérez←▼Sergi Gestí

Valls substitutes

GiralteMirandaGomezPlanaPérez

Manager: Molist

39'▲Manu González←▼Nono

62'▲Adri Lledó←▼Kilian Villaverde

62'▲Pau Morer←▼Jaume Pascual

80'▲Albert Lopez←▼Josu Rodríguez

Terrassa substitutes

GonzálezLledóMorerLopez

Match Recap: Valls vs Terrassa

Terrassa beat Valls 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 18, 2020.

Goals: Jaume Pascual (31'), Salva Torreño (37'), Alejandro Agüera (89' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadi Municipal del Vilar in Valls.

Valls vs Terrassa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Valls vs Terrassa