Valls 2–1 Horta: Result & Stats

Valls

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Horta

Albert Plana 75'

Ramón Miranda 17'

Jordi Aumatell 5'

5/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadi Municipal del Vilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valls39%

×Draw28%

Horta34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VallsExpected goals in this matchHorta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.15

Valls

1.25

Horta

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

0.73

creates per match

1.17

1.13

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Valls

0.73

Horta

1.17

allows per match

Valls

1.13

Horta

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valls+0.00on par

Horta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valls ↓

Horta →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Valls or draw

66%

Valls or Horta

72%

Draw or Horta

61%

Winning margin

Valls wins by 2+

17%

Horta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Valls 1+ goals

71%

Valls 2+ goals

36%

Valls 3+ goals

13%

Horta 1+ goals

68%

Horta 2+ goals

32%

Horta 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Valls (draw refunded)

53%

Horta (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valls at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Horta away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valls attack 0.73 + Horta defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Horta attack 1.17 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valls scores more

39%

level

28%

Horta scores more

34%

Valls at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Valls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Jordi Aumatell

17'

Ramón Miranda

65'

Cesc Martínez← Sergi Gestí

65'

Sergi Gomez← Sergi Masqué

75'

Albert Plana

76'

Sergio Giralte← Albert Plana

76'

A. Conteh-Lacalle← Eric Bezis

86'

Jordi Estivill← Ramón Miranda

86'

Gerard Batista← Jordi Prades

Valls

Horta

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Plana

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Joan Pallarés

65'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Sergi Gestí

65'▲Sergi Gomez←▼Sergi Masqué

76'▲Sergio Giralte←▼Albert Plana

86'▲Jordi Estivill←▼Ramón Miranda

86'▲Gerard Batista←▼Jordi Prades

Valls substitutes

MartínezGomezGiralteEstivillBatista

Manager: Javi Iglesias

76'▲A. Conteh-Lacalle←▼Eric Bezis

Horta substitutes

Conteh-Lacalle

Match Recap: Valls vs Horta

Valls beat Horta 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 9, 2021.

Goals: Jordi Aumatell (5'), Ramón Miranda (17'), Albert Plana (75').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal del Vilar in Valls.

Valls vs Horta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Valls vs Horta