Valls 0–3 Figueres: Result & Stats

Valls

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Figueres

Iván Vidal 64', 48'

Arnau Miro 44' (OG)

4/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadi Municipal del Vilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valls32%

×Draw28%

Figueres40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VallsExpected goals in this matchFigueres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.22

Valls

1.06

Figueres

1.22

Figueres creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

0.73

creates per match

1.31

1.13

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Valls

0.73

Figueres

1.31

allows per match

Valls

1.13

Figueres

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valls+0.00on par

Figueres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valls ↓

Figueres →

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Valls or draw

60%

Valls or Figueres

72%

Draw or Figueres

68%

Winning margin

Valls wins by 2+

12%

Figueres wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Valls 1+ goals

65%

Valls 2+ goals

29%

Valls 3+ goals

Figueres 1+ goals

70%

Figueres 2+ goals

34%

Figueres 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Valls (draw refunded)

44%

Figueres (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valls at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Figueres away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valls attack 0.73 + Figueres defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Figueres attack 1.31 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Valls scores more

32%

level

28%

Figueres scores more

40%

Figueres at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Figueres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Arnau MiroOwn goal

48'

Iván Vidal

63'

Gerard Moya← Sergi Gestí

63'

Cesc Martínez← Ramón Miranda

63'

Jordi Prades← Albert Plana

64'

Iván Vidal

66'

Marc Medina← Iván Vidal

71'

C. Diagne← Sergio Giralte

76'

Xavi Fabra← Sergi Masqué

79'

C. Treviño← Dani Gómez

84'

Marc Granero← Gabriel Vidal

84'

Victor Valverde← O. Touray

Valls

Figueres

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Joan Pallarés

63'▲Gerard Moya←▼Sergi Gestí

63'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Ramón Miranda

63'▲Jordi Prades←▼Albert Plana

71'▲C. Diagne←▼Sergio Giralte

76'▲Xavi Fabra←▼Sergi Masqué

Valls substitutes

MoyaMartínezPradesDiagneFabra

Manager: Moisés Hurtado

66'▲Marc Medina←▼Iván Vidal

79'▲C. Treviño←▼Dani Gómez

84'▲Marc Granero←▼Gabriel Vidal

84'▲Victor Valverde←▼O. Touray

Figueres substitutes

MedinaTreviñoGraneroValverde

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Valls 0–3 Figueres

Figueres beat Valls 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 11, 2021.

Goals: Arnau Miro (44' o.g.), Iván Vidal (48', 64').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal del Vilar in Valls.

Valls vs Figueres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Valls 0–3 Figueres