Vallobín 0–1 Real Avilés: Result & Stats

Vallobín

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Avilés

11/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Vallobín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vallobín37%

×Draw30%

Real Avilés32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VallobínExpected goals in this matchReal Avilés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.98

Vallobín

1.07

Real Avilés

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

0.86

creates per match

1.18

0.79

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Vallobín

0.86

Real Avilés

1.18

allows per match

Vallobín

0.79

Real Avilés

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vallobín+0.00on par

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vallobín ↓

Real Avilés →

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vallobín or draw

68%

Vallobín or Real Avilés

70%

Draw or Real Avilés

63%

Winning margin

Vallobín wins by 2+

15%

Real Avilés wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vallobín 1+ goals

66%

Vallobín 2+ goals

29%

Vallobín 3+ goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals

62%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

26%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vallobín (draw refunded)

53%

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vallobín at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vallobín attack 0.86 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + Vallobín defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vallobín scores more

37%

level

30%

Real Avilés scores more

32%

Vallobín at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vallobín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff