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Vallobín vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Vallobín
Vallobín
CANC
22:00
Lenense
Lenense
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio Vallobín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vallobín48%
×Draw29%
Lenense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vallobín
1.28
Lenense
0.78

Vallobín creates 64% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 96 away

creates per match

Vallobín
0.86
Lenense
0.76

allows per match

Vallobín
0.79
Lenense
1.71

finishing

Vallobín+0.00on par
Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vallobín ↓

Lenense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vallobín or draw
77%
Vallobín or Lenense
71%
Draw or Lenense
52%

Winning margin

Vallobín wins by 2+
22%
Lenense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vallobín 1+ goals
72%
Vallobín 2+ goals
37%
Vallobín 3+ goals
14%
Lenense 1+ goals
54%
Lenense 2+ goals
18%
Lenense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vallobín (draw refunded)
68%
Lenense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vallobín at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vallobín attack 0.86 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Lenense attack 0.76 + Vallobín defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vallobín scores more
48%
level
29%
Lenense scores more
23%

Vallobín at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vallobín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vallobín face Lenense (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Vallobín hosting Lenense. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vallobín host Lenense at Estadio Vallobín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.