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Vallobín vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Vallobín
Vallobín
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Covadonga
Covadonga
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Vallobín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vallobín26%
×Draw28%
Covadonga45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vallobín
0.91
Covadonga
1.29

Covadonga creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 83 away

creates per match

Vallobín
0.86
Covadonga
1.80

allows per match

Vallobín
0.79
Covadonga
0.96

finishing

Vallobín+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vallobín ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vallobín or draw
55%
Vallobín or Covadonga
72%
Draw or Covadonga
74%

Winning margin

Vallobín wins by 2+
9%
Covadonga wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vallobín 1+ goals
60%
Vallobín 2+ goals
23%
Vallobín 3+ goals
6%
Covadonga 1+ goals
72%
Covadonga 2+ goals
37%
Covadonga 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vallobín (draw refunded)
37%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vallobín at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vallobín attack 0.86 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Vallobín defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vallobín scores more
26%
level
28%
Covadonga scores more
45%

Covadonga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vallobín vs Covadonga

Vallobín beat Covadonga 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Vallobín in Oviedo.