Khujand 1–0 Parvoz: Result & Stats | Vysshaya Liga

Khujand

FT

1 – 0

Parvoz

4/23/2016

Vysshaya Liga · Round 3Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Khujand69%

×Draw19%

Parvoz11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhujandExpected goals in this matchParvoz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.71

Khujand

2.10

Parvoz

0.71

Khujand creates 196% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 23 away

1.63

creates per match

0.57

0.86

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Khujand

1.63

Parvoz

0.57

allows per match

Khujand

0.86

Parvoz

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par

Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Parvoz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Khujand or draw

89%

Khujand or Parvoz

81%

Draw or Parvoz

31%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+

45%

Parvoz wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals

88%

Khujand 2+ goals

62%

Khujand 3+ goals

35%

Parvoz 1+ goals

51%

Parvoz 2+ goals

16%

Parvoz 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)

86%

Parvoz (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.86 · 35 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.63 + Parvoz defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.10

Parvoz attack 0.57 + Khujand defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Khujand scores more

69%

level

19%

Parvoz scores more

11%

Khujand at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff