Valletta FC 4–0 Victoria Wanderers: Result & Stats

Valletta FC

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Victoria Wanderers

Jefferson Ferreira 84'

E. Mushagalusa 80', 52'

J. Scicluna 32'

1/12/2025

FA Trophy · Round of 32MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Valletta FC79%

×Draw12%

Victoria Wanderers9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valletta FCExpected goals in this matchVictoria Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.21

1.00

Valletta FC

3.21

Victoria Wanderers

1.00

Valletta FC creates 221% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

3.43

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Valletta FC

3.43

Victoria Wanderers

1.00

allows per match

Valletta FC

1.00

Victoria Wanderers

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valletta FC+0.00on par

Victoria Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valletta FC ↓

Victoria Wanderers →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Valletta FC or draw

91%

Valletta FC or Victoria Wanderers

88%

Draw or Victoria Wanderers

21%

Winning margin

Valletta FC wins by 2+

61%

Victoria Wanderers wins by 2+

Team goals

Valletta FC 1+ goals

96%

Valletta FC 2+ goals

82%

Valletta FC 3+ goals

60%

Victoria Wanderers 1+ goals

63%

Victoria Wanderers 2+ goals

26%

Victoria Wanderers 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Valletta FC (draw refunded)

90%

Victoria Wanderers (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valletta FC at home — creates 3.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Victoria Wanderers away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valletta FC attack 3.43 + Victoria Wanderers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.21

Victoria Wanderers attack 1.00 + Valletta FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Valletta FC scores more

79%

level

12%

Victoria Wanderers scores more

Valletta FC at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Valletta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

J. Scicluna

46'

Jefferson Ferreira← A. Ciolacu

52'

E. Mushagalusa

71'

R. Muscat← J. Azzopardi

74'

N. Grech← A. Touarha

79'

Z. Barbara← A. Attard

79'

J. Meilak← S. Harland

80'

E. Mushagalusa

82'

C. Gauci← E. Mushagalusa

82'

P. Lapira← S. MacKay

84'

Jefferson Ferreira

Valletta

Victoria

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Mushagalu

Manager: T. Micallef

46'▲Jefferson Ferreira←▼A. Ciolacu

71'▲R. Muscat←▼J. Azzopardi

79'▲Z. Barbara←▼A. Attard

82'▲C. Gauci←▼E. Mushagalusa

82'▲P. Lapira←▼S. MacKay

Valletta FC substitutes

FerreiraMuscatBarbaraGauciLapiraContiEwurumFrendoOhaka

Manager: M. Buttigieg

74'▲N. Grech←▼A. Touarha

79'▲J. Meilak←▼S. Harland

Victoria Wanderers substitutes

GrechMeilakVellaXuerebButtigiegSalibaSpencerCiniAzzopardi