Valletta FC 1–1 Hamrun Spartans: Result & Stats

Valletta FC

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hamrun Spartans

B. Paiber 120'

S. Meijer 105'

Y. Yankam 60'

M. El Fanis 67'

3/4/2026

FA Trophy · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Valletta FC46%

×Draw21%

Hamrun Spartans33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valletta FCExpected goals in this matchHamrun Spartans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.80

Valletta FC

2.12

Hamrun Spartans

1.80

Valletta FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

3.43

creates per match

2.60

1.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Valletta FC

3.43

Hamrun Spartans

2.60

allows per match

Valletta FC

1.00

Hamrun Spartans

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valletta FC+0.00on par

Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valletta FC ↓

Hamrun Spartans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Valletta FC or draw

67%

Valletta FC or Hamrun Spartans

79%

Draw or Hamrun Spartans

54%

Winning margin

Valletta FC wins by 2+

26%

Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Valletta FC 1+ goals

88%

Valletta FC 2+ goals

62%

Valletta FC 3+ goals

35%

Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals

83%

Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals

54%

Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Valletta FC (draw refunded)

58%

Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valletta FC at home — creates 3.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Hamrun Spartans away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valletta FC attack 3.43 + Hamrun Spartans defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 2.12

Hamrun Spartans attack 2.60 + Valletta FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Valletta FC scores more

46%

level

21%

Hamrun Spartans scores more

33%

Valletta FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Valletta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Rafael Compri

43'

J. Mendoza

46'

S. Xerri← Rafael Compri

60'

Y. Yankam

66'

M. Carboni← S. Attard

66'

M. El Fanis← B. Eleke

66'

Jonny← D. Bulevardi

67'

M. El Fanis

72'

A. Adebayo← Yuri

83'

S. Meijer← A. Zammit

84'

B. Paiber← J. Mendoza

90+3'

93'

95'

105'

120'

Valletta

Hamrun

1

Bonello

2

▼

Compri

6

Guillaumi

7

▼

10

13

27

30

▼

Eleke

31

▼

91

94

90

3

4

8

▼

Zammit

11

Azzopardi

19

Tavares

20

⚽

Yankam

33

Mbende

50

▼

Yuri

55

Radic

98

▼

Mendoza

Manager: Thane Micallef

72'▲A. Adebayo←▼Yuri

83'▲S. Meijer←▼A. Zammit

84'▲B. Paiber←▼J. Mendoza

Valletta FC substitutes

1Archibald13Frendo5Nasar10Paiber17Grech18Ohaka29Adebayo31Melillo44Micallef80Chetcuti99Meijer

Manager: Giacomo Modica

46'▲S. Xerri←▼Rafael Compri

66'▲M. Carboni←▼S. Attard

66'▲M. El Fanis←▼B. Eleke

66'▲Jonny←▼D. Bulevardi

Hamrun Spartans substitutes

12Camilleri5Xerri8Garcia14Borg16Camilleri17Serber23Hili25Ederson32Carboni47Fanis49Jonny