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Valletta FC vs Ghajnsielem — FA Trophy 2020

Valletta FC
Valletta FC
FT
7 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ghajnsielem
Ghajnsielem
1/14/2024FA TrophyFA Trophy · 1st RoundMFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Valletta FC92%
×Draw5%
Ghajnsielem2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valletta FC
4.21
Ghajnsielem
0.63

Valletta FC creates 568% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Valletta FC
3.43
Ghajnsielem
0.25

allows per match

Valletta FC
1.00
Ghajnsielem
5.00

finishing

Valletta FC+0.00on par
Ghajnsielem+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valletta FC ↓

Ghajnsielem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Valletta FC or draw
98%
Valletta FC or Ghajnsielem
95%
Draw or Ghajnsielem
8%

Winning margin

Valletta FC wins by 2+
80%
Ghajnsielem wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Valletta FC 1+ goals
98%
Valletta FC 2+ goals
91%
Valletta FC 3+ goals
76%
Ghajnsielem 1+ goals
47%
Ghajnsielem 2+ goals
13%
Ghajnsielem 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Valletta FC (draw refunded)
98%
Ghajnsielem (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valletta FC at home — creates 3.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Ghajnsielem away — creates 0.25, concedes 5.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valletta FC attack 3.43 + Ghajnsielem defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.21

Ghajnsielem attack 0.25 + Valletta FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Valletta FC scores more
92%
level
5%
Ghajnsielem scores more
2%

Valletta FC at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Valletta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Valletta FC 7–1 Ghajnsielem

Valletta FC beat Ghajnsielem 7-1 in FA Trophy on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.