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Valledupar vs Real Cartagena — Primera B 2018

Valledupar
Valledupar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
2/8/2021Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 4Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Valledupar44%
×Draw28%
Real Cartagena28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valledupar
1.29
Real Cartagena
0.98

Valledupar creates 32% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 160 away

creates per match

Valledupar
1.25
Real Cartagena
0.93

allows per match

Valledupar
1.03
Real Cartagena
1.34

finishing

Valledupar+0.00on par
Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valledupar ↓

Real Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Valledupar or draw
72%
Valledupar or Real Cartagena
72%
Draw or Real Cartagena
56%

Winning margin

Valledupar wins by 2+
20%
Real Cartagena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Valledupar 1+ goals
72%
Valledupar 2+ goals
37%
Valledupar 3+ goals
14%
Real Cartagena 1+ goals
62%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
26%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Valledupar (draw refunded)
61%
Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valledupar at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 89 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.34 · 160 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valledupar attack 1.25 + Real Cartagena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Cartagena attack 0.93 + Valledupar defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valledupar scores more
44%
level
28%
Real Cartagena scores more
28%

Valledupar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valledupar vs Real Cartagena

Valledupar beat Real Cartagena 2-0 in Primera B on February 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.