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Valle Egüés vs San Juan — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
CANC
22:00
San Juan
San Juan
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 37Estadio Sarriguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Valle Egüés40%
×Draw27%
San Juan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valle Egüés
1.35
San Juan
1.19

Valle Egüés creates 13% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 62 away

creates per match

Valle Egüés
1.76
San Juan
1.29

allows per match

Valle Egüés
1.09
San Juan
0.94

finishing

Valle Egüés+0.00on par
San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valle Egüés ↓

San Juan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Valle Egüés or draw
67%
Valle Egüés or San Juan
73%
Draw or San Juan
60%

Winning margin

Valle Egüés wins by 2+
19%
San Juan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Valle Egüés 1+ goals
74%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
39%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
15%
San Juan 1+ goals
70%
San Juan 2+ goals
33%
San Juan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
55%
San Juan (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valle Egüés at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 91 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valle Egüés attack 1.76 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.35

San Juan attack 1.29 + Valle Egüés defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Valle Egüés scores more
40%
level
27%
San Juan scores more
33%

Valle Egüés at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Valle Egüés vs San Juan — Match Preview

Valle Egüés face San Juan on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Valle Egüés host San Juan at Estadio Sarriguren.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.