San Juan 2–0 Valle Egüés: Result & Stats

San Juan

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valle Egüés

1/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 13Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

San Juan52%

×Draw26%

Valle Egüés22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San JuanExpected goals in this matchValle Egüés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.89

San Juan

1.51

Valle Egüés

0.89

San Juan creates 70% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 90 away

1.64

creates per match

1.27

0.51

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

San Juan

1.64

Valle Egüés

1.27

allows per match

San Juan

0.51

Valle Egüés

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Juan+0.00on par

Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan ↓

Valle Egüés →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Juan or draw

78%

San Juan or Valle Egüés

74%

Draw or Valle Egüés

48%

Winning margin

San Juan wins by 2+

26%

Valle Egüés wins by 2+

Team goals

San Juan 1+ goals

78%

San Juan 2+ goals

44%

San Juan 3+ goals

19%

Valle Egüés 1+ goals

59%

Valle Egüés 2+ goals

22%

Valle Egüés 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Juan (draw refunded)

70%

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Juan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.51 · 61 matches

Valle Egüés away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Juan attack 1.64 + Valle Egüés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Valle Egüés attack 1.27 + San Juan defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Juan scores more

52%

level

26%

Valle Egüés scores more

22%

San Juan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: San Juan 2–0 Valle Egüés

San Juan beat Valle Egüés 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Pamplona.

San Juan vs Valle Egüés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: San Juan 2–0 Valle Egüés