Valle Egüés 3–0 River Ega: Result & Stats

Valle Egüés

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

River Ega

3/27/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 21Estadio Sarriguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valle Egüés52%

×Draw24%

River Ega23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valle EgüésExpected goals in this matchRiver Ega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.04

Valle Egüés

1.68

River Ega

1.04

Valle Egüés creates 62% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

1.76

creates per match

1.00

1.09

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Valle Egüés

1.76

River Ega

1.00

allows per match

Valle Egüés

1.09

River Ega

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valle Egüés+0.00on par

River Ega+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valle Egüés ↓

River Ega →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Valle Egüés or draw

77%

Valle Egüés or River Ega

76%

Draw or River Ega

48%

Winning margin

Valle Egüés wins by 2+

28%

River Ega wins by 2+

Team goals

Valle Egüés 1+ goals

81%

Valle Egüés 2+ goals

50%

Valle Egüés 3+ goals

24%

River Ega 1+ goals

65%

River Ega 2+ goals

28%

River Ega 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)

69%

River Ega (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valle Egüés at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 91 matches

River Ega away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valle Egüés attack 1.76 + River Ega defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

River Ega attack 1.00 + Valle Egüés defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Valle Egüés scores more

52%

level

24%

River Ega scores more

23%

Valle Egüés at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff