Valle Egüés vs Peña Azagresa: Preview & Prediction

Valle Egüés

CANC

00:00

Peña Azagresa

3/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 29Estadio Sarriguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Valle Egüés60%

×Draw21%

Peña Azagresa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Valle EgüésExpected goals in this matchPeña Azagresa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.11

Valle Egüés

2.10

Peña Azagresa

1.11

Valle Egüés creates 89% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 28 away

1.76

creates per match

1.14

1.09

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Valle Egüés

1.76

Peña Azagresa

1.14

allows per match

Valle Egüés

1.09

Peña Azagresa

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valle Egüés ↓

Peña Azagresa →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Valle Egüés or draw

81%

Valle Egüés or Peña Azagresa

79%

Draw or Peña Azagresa

40%

Winning margin

Valle Egüés wins by 2+

37%

Peña Azagresa wins by 2+

Team goals

Valle Egüés 1+ goals

88%

Valle Egüés 2+ goals

62%

Valle Egüés 3+ goals

35%

Peña Azagresa 1+ goals

67%

Peña Azagresa 2+ goals

30%

Peña Azagresa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)

75%

Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valle Egüés at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 91 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valle Egüés attack 1.76 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.10

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Valle Egüés defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Valle Egüés scores more

60%

level

21%

Peña Azagresa scores more

19%

Valle Egüés at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Valle Egüés host Peña Azagresa

March 19, 2020: Valle Egüés take on Peña Azagresa in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Valle Egüés host Peña Azagresa at Estadio Sarriguren.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Valle Egüés vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Valle Egüés host Peña Azagresa