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Valle Egüés vs Lourdes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lourdes
Lourdes
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 17Estadio Sarriguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Valle Egüés57%
×Draw23%
Lourdes20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valle Egüés
1.84
Lourdes
0.98

Valle Egüés creates 88% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 29 away

creates per match

Valle Egüés
1.76
Lourdes
0.86

allows per match

Valle Egüés
1.09
Lourdes
1.93

finishing

Valle Egüés+0.00on par
Lourdes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valle Egüés ↓

Lourdes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Valle Egüés or draw
80%
Valle Egüés or Lourdes
77%
Draw or Lourdes
43%

Winning margin

Valle Egüés wins by 2+
33%
Lourdes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Valle Egüés 1+ goals
84%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
55%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
28%
Lourdes 1+ goals
62%
Lourdes 2+ goals
26%
Lourdes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
74%
Lourdes (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valle Egüés at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.09 · 91 matches

Lourdes away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valle Egüés attack 1.76 + Lourdes defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.84

Lourdes attack 0.86 + Valle Egüés defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Valle Egüés scores more
57%
level
23%
Lourdes scores more
20%

Valle Egüés at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Valle Egüés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valle Egüés vs Lourdes

Valle Egüés beat Lourdes 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Sarriguren in Sarriguren.