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Valladolid vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Valladolid
Valladolid
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon
8/11/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Valladolid48%
×Draw28%
Sporting Gijon23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valladolid
1.33
Sporting Gijon
0.83

Valladolid creates 60% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 169 away

creates per match

Valladolid
1.52
Sporting Gijon
0.90

allows per match

Valladolid
0.76
Sporting Gijon
1.14

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par
Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Sporting Gijon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw
77%
Valladolid or Sporting Gijon
72%
Draw or Sporting Gijon
52%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+
23%
Sporting Gijon wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals
74%
Valladolid 2+ goals
38%
Valladolid 3+ goals
15%
Sporting Gijon 1+ goals
56%
Sporting Gijon 2+ goals
20%
Sporting Gijon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)
67%
Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.76 · 63 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.52 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sporting Gijon attack 0.90 + Valladolid defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Valladolid scores more
48%
level
28%
Sporting Gijon scores more
23%

Valladolid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Valladolid 2–0 Sporting Gijon

Valladolid beat Sporting Gijon 2-0 in Segunda División on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in Valladolid.