Valladolid vs Real Sociedad II — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 5+ matches
Valladolid53%
Real Sociedad II24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Valladolid creates 56% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Valladolid ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Valladolid at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches
Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.07 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Valladolid attack 1.72 + Real Sociedad II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90
Real Sociedad II attack 1.51 + Valladolid defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Valladolid at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Racing Santander
Malaga
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
Castellón
Burgos
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
FC Andorra
Granada CFReal Sociedad II
LeganesValladolid
Cadiz
Mirandes
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
ZaragozaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Valladolid host Real Sociedad II on Monday, 2 May 2022 at 19:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Valladolid vs Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II beat Valladolid 2-1 in Segunda División on May 2, 2022.
Goals: J. El Yamiq (60' o.g., 77' o.g.), Iván Sánchez (86').
Valladolid controlled possession (71%) and registered 16 shots to 6.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in Valladolid.