Valladolid 0–1 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Las Palmas

A. Sadiku 61'

3/19/2022

Segunda División · Round 32Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Valladolid49%

×Draw28%

Las Palmas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.85

Valladolid

1.38

Las Palmas

0.85

Valladolid creates 62% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 128 away

1.53

creates per match

0.94

0.77

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Valladolid

1.53

Las Palmas

0.94

allows per match

Valladolid

0.77

Las Palmas

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

77%

Valladolid or Las Palmas

72%

Draw or Las Palmas

51%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

24%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

75%

Valladolid 2+ goals

40%

Valladolid 3+ goals

16%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

57%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

21%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

68%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.77 · 64 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.53 + Las Palmas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Valladolid defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Valladolid scores more

49%

level

28%

Las Palmas scores more

23%

Valladolid at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Álvaro Lemos

Las Palmas · D

7.9

Match Events

38'

Alberto Moleiro

57'

Monchu← Álvaro Aguado

57'

A. Tuhami← Jon Morcillo

61'

A. Sadiku

66'

Rober← A. Sadiku

66'

Benito Ramírez← Jesé

69'

Roque Mesa

70'

Cristo González← Sergio León

71'

Iván Sánchez← G. Plata

75'

Óscar Clemente← Alberto Moleiro

77'

Luis Pérez

82'

Víctor Narro← Roque Mesa

82'

Maikel Mesa← Kirian Rodríguez

85'

Shon Weissman

90+6'

Saúl Coco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValladolidLas

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots12

4Corners8

11Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots12

2On Target6

8Off Target3

3Blocked3

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

409Total Passes473

345Accurate Passes389

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1

Segunda División: Valladolid 0–1 Las Palmas

Las Palmas beat Valladolid 1-0 in Segunda División on March 19, 2022.

Goals: A. Sadiku (61').

Las Palmas controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Valladolid vs Las Palmas — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Valladolid 0–1 Las Palmas