Valladolid 5–1 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Valladolid

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Amorebieta

2/27/2022

Segunda División · Round 29Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Valladolid58%

×Draw25%

Amorebieta17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladolidExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.75

Valladolid

1.63

Amorebieta

0.75

Valladolid creates 117% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

1.52

creates per match

0.74

0.76

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Valladolid

1.52

Amorebieta

0.74

allows per match

Valladolid

0.76

Amorebieta

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladolid+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladolid ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Valladolid or draw

83%

Valladolid or Amorebieta

75%

Draw or Amorebieta

42%

Winning margin

Valladolid wins by 2+

32%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Valladolid 1+ goals

80%

Valladolid 2+ goals

48%

Valladolid 3+ goals

22%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

53%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

17%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Valladolid (draw refunded)

77%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valladolid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.76 · 63 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valladolid attack 1.52 + Amorebieta defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Amorebieta attack 0.74 + Valladolid defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Valladolid scores more

58%

level

25%

Amorebieta scores more

17%

Valladolid at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Valladolid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff