Valladares 0–0 Celta de Vigo III: Result & Stats

Valladares

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Celta de Vigo III

4/27/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Campo Futbol Valladares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valladares33%

×Draw29%

Celta de Vigo III38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValladaresExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.15

Valladares

1.05

Celta de Vigo III

1.15

Celta de Vigo III creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

1.12

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Valladares

1.12

Celta de Vigo III

1.00

allows per match

Valladares

1.29

Celta de Vigo III

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valladares+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valladares ↓

Celta de Vigo III →

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Valladares or draw

62%

Valladares or Celta de Vigo III

71%

Draw or Celta de Vigo III

67%

Winning margin

Valladares wins by 2+

13%

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Valladares 1+ goals

65%

Valladares 2+ goals

28%

Valladares 3+ goals

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals

68%

Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals

32%

Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Valladares (draw refunded)

46%

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valladares at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valladares attack 1.12 + Celta de Vigo III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + Valladares defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valladares scores more

33%

level

29%

Celta de Vigo III scores more

38%

Celta de Vigo III at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Celta de Vigo III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Valladares 0–0 Celta de Vigo III

Valladares and Celta de Vigo III drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Futbol Valladares in Vigo.

Valladares vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Valladares 0–0 Celta de Vigo III