Vall de Uxó 0–4 Saguntino: Result & Stats

Vall de Uxó

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Saguntino

5/2/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 33Estadio José Mangriñán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vall de Uxó40%

×Draw30%

Saguntino30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vall de UxóExpected goals in this matchSaguntino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.94

Vall de Uxó

1.12

Saguntino

0.94

Vall de Uxó creates 19% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 80 away

1.15

creates per match

1.18

0.71

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Vall de Uxó

1.15

Saguntino

1.18

allows per match

Vall de Uxó

0.71

Saguntino

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vall de Uxó+0.00on par

Saguntino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vall de Uxó ↓

Saguntino →

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vall de Uxó or draw

70%

Vall de Uxó or Saguntino

70%

Draw or Saguntino

60%

Winning margin

Vall de Uxó wins by 2+

16%

Saguntino wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vall de Uxó 1+ goals

67%

Vall de Uxó 2+ goals

31%

Vall de Uxó 3+ goals

10%

Saguntino 1+ goals

61%

Saguntino 2+ goals

24%

Saguntino 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vall de Uxó (draw refunded)

57%

Saguntino (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vall de Uxó at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Saguntino away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vall de Uxó attack 1.15 + Saguntino defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Saguntino attack 1.18 + Vall de Uxó defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vall de Uxó scores more

40%

level

30%

Saguntino scores more

30%

Vall de Uxó at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vall de Uxó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff