Valeriodoce 1–3 Uniao Trabalhadores: Result & Stats

Valeriodoce

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Uniao Trabalhadores

Kaique Maciel 90+2'

Alemao 89'

Fernandinho 51'

Bernardo 45'

7/7/2024

Mineiro - 2 · 2nd Phase - 2Estádio Israel Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valeriodoce32%

×Draw30%

Uniao Trabalhadores38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValeriodoceExpected goals in this matchUniao Trabalhadores

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.08

Valeriodoce

0.96

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.08

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

1.00

creates per match

1.22

0.94

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Valeriodoce

1.00

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.22

allows per match

Valeriodoce

0.94

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valeriodoce+0.00on par

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valeriodoce ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Valeriodoce or draw

62%

Valeriodoce or Uniao Trabalhadores

70%

Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores

68%

Winning margin

Valeriodoce wins by 2+

12%

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Valeriodoce 1+ goals

62%

Valeriodoce 2+ goals

25%

Valeriodoce 3+ goals

7%

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals

66%

Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals

29%

Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Valeriodoce (draw refunded)

46%

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valeriodoce at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valeriodoce attack 1.00 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.22 + Valeriodoce defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Valeriodoce scores more

32%

level

30%

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more

38%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Bernardo

51'

Fernandinho

89'

Alemao

90+2'

Kaique Maciel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff