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Valeriodoce vs North Esporte — Mineiro - 2 2026

Valeriodoce
Valeriodoce
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
North Esporte
North Esporte
Juan Carlos 10'
Anderson Magrao 6'
5/18/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 4Estádio Israel Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valeriodoce36%
×Draw33%
North Esporte31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valeriodoce
0.95
North Esporte
0.85

Valeriodoce creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Valeriodoce
1.00
North Esporte
0.76

allows per match

Valeriodoce
0.94
North Esporte
0.90

finishing

Valeriodoce+0.00on par
North Esporte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 73Over: 2773%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 65Yes: 3565%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valeriodoce ↓

North Esporte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Valeriodoce or draw
69%
Valeriodoce or North Esporte
67%
Draw or North Esporte
64%

Winning margin

Valeriodoce wins by 2+
13%
North Esporte wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Valeriodoce 1+ goals
61%
Valeriodoce 2+ goals
25%
Valeriodoce 3+ goals
7%
North Esporte 1+ goals
57%
North Esporte 2+ goals
21%
North Esporte 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Valeriodoce (draw refunded)
54%
North Esporte (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valeriodoce at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

North Esporte away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valeriodoce attack 1.00 + North Esporte defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

North Esporte attack 0.76 + Valeriodoce defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Valeriodoce scores more
36%
level
33%
North Esporte scores more
31%

Valeriodoce at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Valeriodoce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Anderson Magrao
10'
Juan Carlos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valeriodoce vs North Esporte

Valeriodoce and North Esporte drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 18, 2025.

Goals: Anderson Magrao (6'), Juan Carlos (10').

The match was played at Estádio Israel Pinheiro in Itabira, Minas Gerais.