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Valeriodoce vs Ipatinga — Mineiro - 2 2026

Valeriodoce
Valeriodoce
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ipatinga
Ipatinga
Unknown 20'
Unknown 25'
6/23/2026Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Valeriodoce40%
×Draw29%
Ipatinga31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valeriodoce
1.21
Ipatinga
1.02

Valeriodoce creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Valeriodoce
1.00
Ipatinga
1.11

allows per match

Valeriodoce
0.94
Ipatinga
1.42

finishing

Valeriodoce+0.00on par
Ipatinga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valeriodoce ↓

Ipatinga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Valeriodoce or draw
69%
Valeriodoce or Ipatinga
71%
Draw or Ipatinga
60%

Winning margin

Valeriodoce wins by 2+
17%
Ipatinga wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Valeriodoce 1+ goals
70%
Valeriodoce 2+ goals
34%
Valeriodoce 3+ goals
12%
Ipatinga 1+ goals
64%
Ipatinga 2+ goals
27%
Ipatinga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Valeriodoce (draw refunded)
57%
Ipatinga (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valeriodoce at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Ipatinga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valeriodoce attack 1.00 + Ipatinga defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ipatinga attack 1.11 + Valeriodoce defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Valeriodoce scores more
40%
level
29%
Ipatinga scores more
31%

Valeriodoce at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Valeriodoce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
25'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Valeriodoce 1–1 Ipatinga

Valeriodoce and Ipatinga drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 23, 2026.

Goals: ? (20', 25').