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Valeriodoce vs Coimbra — Mineiro - 2 2026

Valeriodoce
Valeriodoce
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coimbra
Coimbra
6/7/2026Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Valeriodoce42%
×Draw29%
Coimbra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valeriodoce
1.20
Coimbra
0.92

Valeriodoce creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

creates per match

Valeriodoce
1.00
Coimbra
0.90

allows per match

Valeriodoce
0.94
Coimbra
1.40

finishing

Valeriodoce+0.00on par
Coimbra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valeriodoce ↓

Coimbra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Valeriodoce or draw
72%
Valeriodoce or Coimbra
71%
Draw or Coimbra
58%

Winning margin

Valeriodoce wins by 2+
18%
Coimbra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Valeriodoce 1+ goals
70%
Valeriodoce 2+ goals
34%
Valeriodoce 3+ goals
12%
Coimbra 1+ goals
60%
Coimbra 2+ goals
23%
Coimbra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Valeriodoce (draw refunded)
60%
Coimbra (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valeriodoce at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Coimbra away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valeriodoce attack 1.00 + Coimbra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Coimbra attack 0.90 + Valeriodoce defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Valeriodoce scores more
42%
level
29%
Coimbra scores more
28%

Valeriodoce at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Valeriodoce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valeriodoce vs Coimbra

Valeriodoce and Coimbra drew 0-0 in Mineiro - 2 on June 7, 2026.