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Vålerenga W vs LSK Kvinner W — Toppserien 2021

Vålerenga W
Vålerenga W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LSK Kvinner W
LSK Kvinner W
11/2/2025ToppserienToppserien · Round 25Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Vålerenga W58%
×Draw21%
LSK Kvinner W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vålerenga W
2.12
LSK Kvinner W
1.23

Vålerenga W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 65 away

creates per match

Vålerenga W
2.90
LSK Kvinner W
1.65

allows per match

Vålerenga W
0.80
LSK Kvinner W
1.34

finishing

Vålerenga W+0.00on par
LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga W ↓

LSK Kvinner W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vålerenga W or draw
78%
Vålerenga W or LSK Kvinner W
79%
Draw or LSK Kvinner W
42%

Winning margin

Vålerenga W wins by 2+
35%
LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vålerenga W 1+ goals
88%
Vålerenga W 2+ goals
62%
Vålerenga W 3+ goals
35%
LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals
71%
LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals
35%
LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga W (draw refunded)
73%
LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.80 · 70 matches

LSK Kvinner W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga W attack 2.90 + LSK Kvinner W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.12

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.65 + Vålerenga W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vålerenga W scores more
58%
level
21%
LSK Kvinner W scores more
22%

Vålerenga W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vålerenga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toppserien: Vålerenga W 2–0 LSK Kvinner W

Vålerenga W beat LSK Kvinner W 2-0 in Toppserien on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.