Vålerenga W 4–0 Kolbotn W: Result & Stats

Vålerenga W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kolbotn W

9/21/2025

Toppserien · Round 21Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vålerenga W71%

×Draw17%

Kolbotn W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vålerenga WExpected goals in this matchKolbotn W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.96

Vålerenga W

2.50

Kolbotn W

0.96

Vålerenga W creates 160% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 44 away

2.90

creates per match

1.11

0.80

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Vålerenga W

2.90

Kolbotn W

1.11

allows per match

Vålerenga W

0.80

Kolbotn W

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vålerenga W+0.00on par

Kolbotn W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga W ↓

Kolbotn W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Vålerenga W or draw

87%

Vålerenga W or Kolbotn W

83%

Draw or Kolbotn W

29%

Winning margin

Vålerenga W wins by 2+

48%

Kolbotn W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vålerenga W 1+ goals

92%

Vålerenga W 2+ goals

71%

Vålerenga W 3+ goals

45%

Kolbotn W 1+ goals

62%

Kolbotn W 2+ goals

25%

Kolbotn W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga W (draw refunded)

85%

Kolbotn W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.80 · 70 matches

Kolbotn W away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga W attack 2.90 + Kolbotn W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.50

Kolbotn W attack 1.11 + Vålerenga W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Vålerenga W scores more

71%

level

17%

Kolbotn W scores more

13%

Vålerenga W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Vålerenga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff