Vålerenga W 7–0 Klepp W: Result & Stats

Vålerenga W

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Klepp W

S. Jensen 56', 54', 48', 19'

A. Andradóttir 45+3'

A. Tomter 18'

D. Stefanović 10' (pen)

6/26/2021

Toppserien · Round 5Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vålerenga W88%

×Draw9%

Klepp W3%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vålerenga WExpected goals in this matchKlepp W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

0.51

Vålerenga W

3.17

Klepp W

0.51

Vålerenga W creates 522% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 9 away

2.90

creates per match

0.22

0.80

allows per match

3.44

creates per match

Vålerenga W

2.90

Klepp W

0.22

allows per match

Vålerenga W

0.80

Klepp W

3.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vålerenga W+0.00on par

Klepp W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga W ↓

Klepp W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–16%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Vålerenga W or draw

97%

Vålerenga W or Klepp W

91%

Draw or Klepp W

12%

Winning margin

Vålerenga W wins by 2+

70%

Klepp W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Vålerenga W 1+ goals

96%

Vålerenga W 2+ goals

82%

Vålerenga W 3+ goals

60%

Klepp W 1+ goals

40%

Klepp W 2+ goals

9%

Klepp W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga W (draw refunded)

96%

Klepp W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.80 · 70 matches

Klepp W away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga W attack 2.90 + Klepp W defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 3.17

Klepp W attack 0.22 + Vålerenga W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Vålerenga W scores more

88%

level

9%

Klepp W scores more

3%

Vålerenga W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Vålerenga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

D. StefanovićPenalty

18'

19'

42'

45+3'

46'

C. Huseby← I. Sigurðardóttir

46'

Y. Tennebø← D. Stefanović

46'

R. Madsen← C. Ildhusøy

48'

52'

54'

56'

57'

E. Thorsnes← S. Jensen

64'

E. Greening← I. Nødland

64'

K. Karlsen← S. Bjørnsen

70'

S. Brekken← A. Andradóttir

83'

M. Byberg← M. Andresen

83'

H. Byberg← I. Skretting

Vålerenga

Klepp

1

12

15

22

14

28

16

▼

Bjørnsen

24

▼

Skretting

18

▼

Nødland

44

▼

Mjelde

8

▼

Andresen

32

Tompkins

3

Pedersen

5

⚽

Tomter

11

▼

4

25

8

22

⚽

▼

Stefanovi

17

⚽

▼

Andradótt

10

⚽4

▼

Jensen

18

▼

Ildhusøy

Manager: J. Majgaard

46'▲C. Huseby←▼I. Sigurðardóttir

46'▲Y. Tennebø←▼D. Stefanović

46'▲R. Madsen←▼C. Ildhusøy

57'▲E. Thorsnes←▼S. Jensen

70'▲S. Brekken←▼A. Andradóttir

Vålerenga W substitutes

6Huseby15Tennebø26Madsen9Thorsnes30Brekken1Seabert29Nyhagen20Markussen16Iversen

Manager: N. Loftus

42'▲I. Tveit←▼C. Mjelde

64'▲E. Greening←▼I. Nødland

64'▲K. Karlsen←▼S. Bjørnsen

83'▲M. Byberg←▼M. Andresen

83'▲H. Byberg←▼I. Skretting

Klepp W substitutes

31Tveit17Greening21Karlsen26Byberg35Byberg7Maksuti41Kolnes