Valerenga 2–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stromsgodset

E. Hagen 90'

A. Olsen 90'

J. Taaje 29'

10/26/2025

Eliteserien · Round 26Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Valerenga49%

×Draw23%

Stromsgodset28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.34

Valerenga

1.82

Stromsgodset

1.34

Valerenga creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

1.48

creates per match

0.96

1.72

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Valerenga

1.48

Stromsgodset

0.96

allows per match

Valerenga

1.72

Stromsgodset

2.16

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.41scores more

Stromsgodset+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

72%

Valerenga or Stromsgodset

77%

Draw or Stromsgodset

51%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

27%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

84%

Valerenga 2+ goals

54%

Valerenga 3+ goals

27%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

74%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

39%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

63%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.48 + Stromsgodset defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.82

Stromsgodset attack 0.96 + Valerenga defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Valerenga scores more

49%

level

23%

Stromsgodset scores more

28%

Valerenga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Taaje

Stromsgodset · D

8.2

Match Events

29'

J. Taaje↳ L. Vilsvik

41'

Jesper Taaje

45+2'

Johan Johanessen Bakke

59'

J. Torkildsen← P. Bratveit

65'

J. Ampofo← E. Melkersen

66'

B. Sormo← L. Vilsvik

66'

M. Mehnert← O. Enersen

68'

E. Hagen← C. Lange

68'

P. Meliga← E. Sorensen

69'

Gustav Valsvik

82'

S. Sjovold← V. Hedenstad

82'

P. Strand←

90+8'

S. Jarl← M. Grundetjern

90'

E. Hagen↳ I. Nasberg

90'

A. Olsen↳ S. Sjovold

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaStromsgodset

Overview

67%Possession33%

23Total Shots6

2.50Expected Goals (xG)0.46

16Corners3

9Fouls15

Shots

23Total Shots6

7On Target3

8Off Target1

8Blocked2

17Inside Box5

6Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

580Total Passes284

502Accurate Passes215

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Stromsgodset

Valerenga beat Stromsgodset 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 26, 2025.

Goals: J. Taaje (29'), E. Hagen (90'), A. Olsen (90').

Valerenga controlled possession (67%) and registered 23 shots to 6.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.

Valerenga vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Stromsgodset