Valerenga 4–0 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Stromsgodset

A. Layouni 43', 30'

T. Børven 19', 17'

10/1/2022

Eliteserien · Round 24Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Valerenga49%

×Draw23%

Stromsgodset28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.35

Valerenga

1.85

Stromsgodset

1.35

Valerenga creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

1.61

creates per match

1.06

1.64

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Valerenga

1.61

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Valerenga

1.64

Stromsgodset

2.08

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.35scores more

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

72%

Valerenga or Stromsgodset

77%

Draw or Stromsgodset

51%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

27%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

84%

Valerenga 2+ goals

55%

Valerenga 3+ goals

28%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

74%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

39%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

64%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.64 · 24 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.61 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Valerenga scores more

49%

level

23%

Stromsgodset scores more

28%

Valerenga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Layouni

Valerenga · F

8.6

Match Events

17'

T. Børven↳ A. Layouni

19'

T. Børven↳ J. Eng

30'

A. Layouni↳ J. Eng

36'

E. Boahene← O. Enersen

37'

Niklas Gunnarsson

43'

A. Layouni↳ F. Jensen

46'

J. Therkelsen← E. Boahene

46'

F. Holst-Larsen← N. Gunnarsson

61'

H. Bjørdal← T. Christensen

61'

M. Riisnæs← J. Eng

74'

S. Jatta← A. Layouni

74'

H. Udahl← T. Børven

80'

E. Danso← J. Braut Brunes

85'

Jonas Therkelsen

87'

J. El-Abdellaoui← P. Strand

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaStromsgodset

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots8

12Corners3

5Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots8

9On Target2

10Off Target3

2Blocked3

17Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

488Total Passes361

423Accurate Passes295

87%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2