Valerenga 1–4 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Stromsgodset

C. Ejuke 45+1'

H. Stengel 90+6'

Marcus Pedersen 65' (pen), 26'

T. Nguen 48'

4/7/2018

Eliteserien · Round 4Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Valerenga49%

×Draw23%

Stromsgodset28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.35

Valerenga

1.85

Stromsgodset

1.35

Valerenga creates 37% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

1.61

creates per match

1.06

1.64

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Valerenga

1.61

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Valerenga

1.64

Stromsgodset

2.08

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.35scores more

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

72%

Valerenga or Stromsgodset

77%

Draw or Stromsgodset

51%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

27%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

84%

Valerenga 2+ goals

55%

Valerenga 3+ goals

28%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

74%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

39%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

64%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.64 · 24 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.61 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Valerenga scores more

49%

level

23%

Stromsgodset scores more

28%

Valerenga at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

T. Nguen

Stromsgodset · M

8.2

Match Events

21'

Ivan Nasberg

26'

Marcus Pedersen↳ J. Parr

45+1'

C. Ejuke↳ M. Lekven

48'

T. Nguen

57'

B. Finne← S. Juklerød

57'

E. Agyiri← M. Lekven

64'

Adam Kwarasey

65'

Marcus PedersenPenalty

77'

Bassel Jradi← K. Tokstad

78'

F. Carvalho← J. Nation

84'

M. Abdellaoue← Marcus Pedersen

88'

M. Hamoud← J. Parr

90+6'

H. Stengel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaStromsgodset

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots14

2Corners3

14Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots14

3On Target7

2Off Target6

4Blocked1

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

394Total Passes385

312Accurate Passes315

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides5

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Stromsgodset

Stromsgodset beat Valerenga 4-1 in Eliteserien on April 7, 2018.

Goals: Marcus Pedersen (26', 65' pen), C. Ejuke (45+1'), T. Nguen (48'), H. Stengel (90+6').

Valerenga controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.

Valerenga vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Valerenga vs Stromsgodset