Valerenga 1–1 Sogndal: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Valerenga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sogndal

D. Håkans 69'

E. Flataker 37'

4/1/2024

1. Division · Round 1Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Valerenga63%

×Draw19%

Sogndal18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.17

Valerenga

2.35

Sogndal

1.17

Valerenga creates 101% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 114 away

3.13

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Valerenga

3.13

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

Valerenga

1.00

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

82%

Valerenga or Sogndal

81%

Draw or Sogndal

37%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

41%

Sogndal wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

90%

Valerenga 2+ goals

68%

Valerenga 3+ goals

41%

Sogndal 1+ goals

69%

Sogndal 2+ goals

33%

Sogndal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

78%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 3.13 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.35

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Valerenga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Valerenga scores more

63%

level

19%

Sogndal scores more

18%

Valerenga at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

49'

60'

69'

71'

76'

K. Steinset← J. Flaten

80'

C. Borchgrevink← V. Hedenstad

80'

F. Thorvaldsen← H. Bjørdal

82'

O. Hintsa← J. Berg Nundal

87'

M. Øren← M. Sjølstad

Valerenga

Sogndal

1

Jendal

13

Flo

4

Arrocha

17

▼

6

11

2

8

▼

Flaten

30

⚽

Flataker

31

▼

Nundal

7

Baidoo

21

Sjøeng

6

▼

23

18

5

8

▼

Bjørdal

24

Strand

15

Hagen

11

⚽

Håkans

29

Ambina

9

▼

Rijks

Manager: G. Bakke

60'▲O. Kamara←▼M. Rijks

80'▲C. Borchgrevink←▼V. Hedenstad

80'▲F. Thorvaldsen←▼H. Bjørdal

Valerenga substitutes

19Kamara2Borchgrevink26Thorvaldsen1Storevik3Kjelsen4Olsen22Sjøvold25Abdellaoui27Rønning

Manager: T. Flo

76'▲K. Steinset←▼J. Flaten

82'▲O. Hintsa←▼J. Berg Nundal

87'▲M. Øren←▼M. Sjølstad

Sogndal substitutes

29Steinset9Hintsa32Øren20Twum21Stær-Jensen36Årøy16Oluwafemi