Valerenga 2–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

M. Vilhjálmsson 86'

H. Shala 39'

11/8/2020

Eliteserien · Round 24Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Valerenga52%

×Draw22%

ODD Ballklubb25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.29

Valerenga

1.94

ODD Ballklubb

1.29

Valerenga creates 50% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

1.62

creates per match

0.94

1.64

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Valerenga

1.62

ODD Ballklubb

0.94

allows per match

Valerenga

1.64

ODD Ballklubb

2.26

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.34scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

75%

Valerenga or ODD Ballklubb

78%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

48%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

30%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

86%

Valerenga 2+ goals

58%

Valerenga 3+ goals

30%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

72%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

37%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

67%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.64 · 23 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.26 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.62 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Valerenga scores more

52%

level

22%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

25%

Valerenga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

I. Näsberg

Valerenga · D

7.7

Match Events

39'

H. Shala↳ V. Kjartansson

63'

Odin Luras Bjortuft

70'

R. Simovic← M. Bakenga

70'

T. Lauritsen← V. Rodić

73'

O. Holm← H. Shala

73'

M. Vilhjálmsson← V. Kjartansson

81'

F. Nordkvelle← F. Jørgensen

86'

John Kitolano

86'

M. Vilhjálmsson↳ O. Holm

87'

Espen Ruud

88'

F. Myhre← O. Sahraoui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaODD

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots13

3Corners2

16Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots13

7On Target2

4Off Target6

4Blocked5

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

390Total Passes441

333Accurate Passes372

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4

Eliteserien: Valerenga 2–0 ODD Ballklubb

Valerenga beat ODD Ballklubb 2-0 in Eliteserien on November 8, 2020.

Goals: H. Shala (39'), M. Vilhjálmsson (86').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.

Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Valerenga 2–0 ODD Ballklubb