ODD Ballklubb 2–1 Valerenga: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Valerenga

C. Wallem 70'

D. Gjengaar 28'

J. Eng 87'

10/22/2022

Eliteserien · Round 27Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb42%

×Draw25%

Valerenga33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.31

ODD Ballklubb

1.50

Valerenga

1.31

ODD Ballklubb creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

1.30

creates per match

1.12

1.49

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.30

Valerenga

1.12

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.49

Valerenga

1.70

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par

Valerenga+0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

67%

ODD Ballklubb or Valerenga

75%

Draw or Valerenga

58%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

20%

Valerenga wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

78%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

44%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

19%

Valerenga 1+ goals

73%

Valerenga 2+ goals

38%

Valerenga 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

56%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.70 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Valerenga defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Valerenga attack 1.12 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

42%

level

25%

Valerenga scores more

33%

ODD Ballklubb at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Wallem

ODD Ballklubb · D

8.2

Match Events

26'

Brynjar Bjarnason← J. Nation

28'

D. Gjengaar↳ E. Ruud

49'

Osame Sahraoui

64'

H. Bjørdal← V. Hedenstad

68'

M. Jevtović← D. Gjengaar

70'

C. Wallem

75'

S. Jatta← O. Holm

75'

J. Eng← A. Layouni

78'

Seedy Jatta

79'

J. Baccay← G. Rólantsson

82'

Espen Ruud

87'

J. Eng↳ H. Bjørdal

88'

Filip Rønningen Jørgensen

89'

A. Stensrud← M. Ingebrigtsen

90+2'

Milan Jevtović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ODDValerenga

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots12

5Corners9

13Fouls5

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target5

4Off Target4

2Blocked3

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

424Total Passes536

345Accurate Passes457

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls5

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1