Valerenga 2–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Valerenga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

S. Johnson 65'

J. Nation 60'

B. Njie 58'

3/18/2018

Eliteserien · Round 2Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Valerenga52%

×Draw22%

ODD Ballklubb26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.31

Valerenga

1.92

ODD Ballklubb

1.31

Valerenga creates 47% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

1.61

creates per match

0.98

1.64

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Valerenga

1.61

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Valerenga

1.64

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Valerenga+0.35scores more

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

74%

Valerenga or ODD Ballklubb

78%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

48%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

29%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

85%

Valerenga 2+ goals

57%

Valerenga 3+ goals

30%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

73%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

38%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

66%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.64 · 24 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.61 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.92

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Valerenga defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Valerenga scores more

52%

level

22%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

26%

Valerenga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Juklerød

Valerenga · D

8.0

Match Events

37'

Jonatan Nation

46'

S. Friðjónsson← A. Ibrahim

58'

B. Njie↳ T. Børven

60'

J. Nation↳ S. Juklerød

64'

Samúel Kári Friðjónsson

65'

S. Johnson↳ S. Juklerød

72'

M. Kaasa← F. Nordkvelle

78'

M. Broberg← B. Njie

81'

F. Azemi← S. Johnson

84'

S. Mladenovic← E. Rashani

90+2'

B. Finne← C. Ejuke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaODD

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots8

6Corners6

11Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots8

6On Target2

5Off Target5

3Blocked1

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

434Total Passes406

359Accurate Passes324

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb

Valerenga beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1 in Eliteserien on March 18, 2018.

Goals: B. Njie (58'), J. Nation (60'), S. Johnson (65').

Valerenga controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.

Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Valerenga vs ODD Ballklubb