Valerenga 3–2 Krasnodar 2: Result & Stats

Valerenga

3 – 2

Krasnodar 2

2/23/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Dama de Noche Pitch 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Valerenga61%

×Draw18%

Krasnodar 221%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchKrasnodar 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.56

Valerenga

2.67

Krasnodar 2

1.56

Valerenga creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

2.53

creates per match

1.60

1.53

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Valerenga

2.53

Krasnodar 2

1.60

allows per match

Valerenga

1.53

Krasnodar 2

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.00on par

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Krasnodar 2 →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

79%

Valerenga or Krasnodar 2

82%

Draw or Krasnodar 2

39%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

40%

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

93%

Valerenga 2+ goals

74%

Valerenga 3+ goals

49%

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals

79%

Krasnodar 2 2+ goals

46%

Krasnodar 2 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

74%

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 2.53 + Krasnodar 2 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.67

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.60 + Valerenga defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Valerenga scores more

61%

level

18%

Krasnodar 2 scores more

21%

Valerenga at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff