Vålerenga II 1–2 Fyllingsdalen: Result & Stats

Vålerenga II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fyllingsdalen

L. Apold-Aasen 70'

N. Antonsen 63'

S. Gullaksen 1'

5/31/2025

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 8Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vålerenga II51%

×Draw19%

Fyllingsdalen30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vålerenga IIExpected goals in this matchFyllingsdalen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

2.02

Vålerenga II

2.63

Fyllingsdalen

2.02

Vålerenga II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

3.15

creates per match

1.90

2.15

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Vålerenga II

3.15

Fyllingsdalen

1.90

allows per match

Vålerenga II

2.15

Fyllingsdalen

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vålerenga II+0.00on par

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga II ↓

Fyllingsdalen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Vålerenga II or draw

70%

Vålerenga II or Fyllingsdalen

81%

Draw or Fyllingsdalen

49%

Winning margin

Vålerenga II wins by 2+

32%

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vålerenga II 1+ goals

93%

Vålerenga II 2+ goals

73%

Vålerenga II 3+ goals

48%

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals

87%

Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals

60%

Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga II (draw refunded)

63%

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga II at home — creates 3.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga II attack 3.15 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.63

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.90 + Vålerenga II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vålerenga II scores more

51%

level

19%

Fyllingsdalen scores more

30%

Vålerenga II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vålerenga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

S. Gullaksen

63'

N. Antonsen

70'

L. Apold-Aasen

Vålerenga

Fyllingsdalen

Manager: Ø. Sanden

Manager: R. Fredriksen