Vålerenga II 3–1 Floro: Result & Stats

Vålerenga II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Floro

9/6/2020

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vålerenga II52%

×Draw21%

Floro27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vålerenga IIExpected goals in this matchFloro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.48

Vålerenga II

2.12

Floro

1.48

Vålerenga II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

1.64

creates per match

1.20

1.76

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Vålerenga II

1.64

Floro

1.20

allows per match

Vålerenga II

1.76

Floro

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vålerenga II+0.00on par

Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga II ↓

Floro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Vålerenga II or draw

73%

Vålerenga II or Floro

79%

Draw or Floro

48%

Winning margin

Vålerenga II wins by 2+

31%

Floro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vålerenga II 1+ goals

88%

Vålerenga II 2+ goals

62%

Vålerenga II 3+ goals

35%

Floro 1+ goals

77%

Floro 2+ goals

43%

Floro 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga II (draw refunded)

66%

Floro (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Floro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga II attack 1.64 + Floro defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.12

Floro attack 1.20 + Vålerenga II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vålerenga II scores more

52%

level

21%

Floro scores more

27%

Vålerenga II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vålerenga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff