Vålerenga II 1–0 Flekkerøy: Result & Stats

Vålerenga II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Flekkerøy

Vitinho 72'

4/11/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vålerenga II47%

×Draw23%

Flekkerøy30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vålerenga IIExpected goals in this matchFlekkerøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.44

Vålerenga II

1.83

Flekkerøy

1.44

Vålerenga II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

1.64

creates per match

1.12

1.76

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Vålerenga II

1.64

Flekkerøy

1.12

allows per match

Vålerenga II

1.76

Flekkerøy

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vålerenga II+0.00on par

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vålerenga II ↓

Flekkerøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Vålerenga II or draw

70%

Vålerenga II or Flekkerøy

77%

Draw or Flekkerøy

53%

Winning margin

Vålerenga II wins by 2+

26%

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vålerenga II 1+ goals

84%

Vålerenga II 2+ goals

54%

Vålerenga II 3+ goals

28%

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

76%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

42%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Vålerenga II (draw refunded)

61%

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vålerenga II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

Flekkerøy away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vålerenga II attack 1.64 + Flekkerøy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.83

Flekkerøy attack 1.12 + Vålerenga II defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vålerenga II scores more

47%

level

23%

Flekkerøy scores more

30%

Vålerenga II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vålerenga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

M. Riisnaes

58'

D. Gamachis

62'

N. Risberg← M. Riisnæs

62'

J. Furaha← M. Rokseth

67'

A. E. Hauge

72'

A. Rønning← S. Thorstensen

72'

Vitinho

73'

B. Sundo

80'

A. Hella

80'

D. Ibishi← S. Ystanes

82'

M. Shahid← O. Drammeh

Vålerenga

Flekkerøy

1

31

2

5

18

6

15

▼

4

8

20

7

▼

1

32

27

34

▼

Drammeh

30

Emilsen

15

▼

Riisnæs

33

▼

Thorstens

29

Abdellaou

26

⚽

Vitinho

31

Bjurstrøm

28

Thorvalds

Manager: Ø. Sanden

62'▲N. Risberg←▼M. Riisnæs

72'▲A. Rønning←▼S. Thorstensen

82'▲M. Shahid←▼O. Drammeh

Vålerenga II substitutes

14Risberg9Rønning11Shahid13Stær-Jensen2Brunskog3Opeyemi8Osnes-Ringen21Figueroa16Lange

Manager: J. Hardarson

62'▲J. Furaha←▼M. Rokseth

80'▲D. Ibishi←▼S. Ystanes

Flekkerøy substitutes

11Furaha17Ibishi9Lien13Kristiansen14You16Sigurdsen21Hilmarsson27Birkeland