Vålerenga II vs Bærum — 2. Division - Group 2 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Vålerenga II35%
Bærum44%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bærum creates 12% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 42 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over78
- Under22
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes76
- No24
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vålerenga II ↓
Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vålerenga II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches
Bærum away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.10 · 42 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vålerenga II attack 1.77 + Bærum defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.94
Bærum attack 1.21 + Vålerenga II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Bærum at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Bærum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Vålerenga II substitutes
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Kjelsås
Grorud
Eidsvold
Hønefoss
Levanger
Rana
Tromsdalen Uil
Strommen
Ull/Kisa
Stjørdals-Blink
Lørenskog
Follo
Junkeren
Skeid
Alta
Strindheim
Asker
Trygg/LadeIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vålerenga II host Bærum on Thursday, 6 October 2022 at 16:00. The match is part of the 2. Division - Group 2 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Vålerenga II vs Bærum
Vålerenga II beat Bærum 4-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on October 6, 2022.
Goals: J. El-Abdellaoui (17', 37', 78'), H. Udahl (24').
The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.