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Valentine vs New Lambton — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Valentine
Valentine
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
New Lambton
New Lambton
6/24/2023Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 16Hunter Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Valentine43%
×Draw23%
New Lambton34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valentine
1.73
New Lambton
1.53

Valentine creates 13% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

creates per match

Valentine
1.25
New Lambton
0.91

allows per match

Valentine
2.15
New Lambton
2.21

finishing

Valentine+0.00on par
New Lambton+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valentine ↓

New Lambton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Valentine or draw
66%
Valentine or New Lambton
77%
Draw or New Lambton
57%

Winning margin

Valentine wins by 2+
22%
New Lambton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Valentine 1+ goals
82%
Valentine 2+ goals
52%
Valentine 3+ goals
25%
New Lambton 1+ goals
78%
New Lambton 2+ goals
45%
New Lambton 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Valentine (draw refunded)
55%
New Lambton (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valentine at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.15 · 79 matches

New Lambton away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valentine attack 1.25 + New Lambton defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

New Lambton attack 0.91 + Valentine defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Valentine scores more
43%
level
23%
New Lambton scores more
34%

Valentine at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Valentine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Valentine 0–0 New Lambton

Valentine and New Lambton drew 0-0 in Northern NSW NPL on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Hunter Sports Centre in Lake Macquarie.