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Valentine vs Adamstown Rosebuds — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Valentine
Valentine
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Adamstown Rosebuds
Adamstown Rosebuds
4/18/2026Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Valentine47%
×Draw21%
Adamstown Rosebuds32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valentine
2.06
Adamstown Rosebuds
1.67

Valentine creates 23% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

creates per match

Valentine
1.25
Adamstown Rosebuds
1.19

allows per match

Valentine
2.15
Adamstown Rosebuds
2.88

finishing

Valentine+0.00on par
Adamstown Rosebuds+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valentine ↓

Adamstown Rosebuds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Valentine or draw
68%
Valentine or Adamstown Rosebuds
79%
Draw or Adamstown Rosebuds
53%

Winning margin

Valentine wins by 2+
27%
Adamstown Rosebuds wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Valentine 1+ goals
87%
Valentine 2+ goals
61%
Valentine 3+ goals
34%
Adamstown Rosebuds 1+ goals
81%
Adamstown Rosebuds 2+ goals
50%
Adamstown Rosebuds 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Valentine (draw refunded)
60%
Adamstown Rosebuds (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valentine at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.15 · 79 matches

Adamstown Rosebuds away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valentine attack 1.25 + Adamstown Rosebuds defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.06

Adamstown Rosebuds attack 1.19 + Valentine defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Valentine scores more
47%
level
21%
Adamstown Rosebuds scores more
32%

Valentine at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Valentine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Valentine 0–3 Adamstown Rosebuds

Adamstown Rosebuds beat Valentine 3-0 in Northern NSW NPL on April 18, 2026.