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Valenciennes vs UNFP — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Valenciennes
Valenciennes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
UNFP
UNFP
7/15/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Valenciennes56%
×Draw22%
UNFP21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valenciennes
1.89
UNFP
1.08

Valenciennes creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Valenciennes
1.60
UNFP
1.17

allows per match

Valenciennes
1.00
UNFP
2.17

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par
UNFP+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

UNFP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw
79%
Valenciennes or UNFP
78%
Draw or UNFP
44%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+
32%
UNFP wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals
85%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
56%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
29%
UNFP 1+ goals
66%
UNFP 2+ goals
29%
UNFP 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)
72%
UNFP (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

UNFP away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.60 + UNFP defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

UNFP attack 1.17 + Valenciennes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Valenciennes scores more
56%
level
22%
UNFP scores more
21%

Valenciennes at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Valenciennes 2–1 UNFP

Valenciennes beat UNFP 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2023.