Valenciennes 1–1 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Valenciennes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Niort

T. Chevalier 40'

I. Sissoko 2'

9/20/2019

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade du Hainaut (Valenciennes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Valenciennes44%

×Draw27%

Niort28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciennesExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.04

Valenciennes

1.37

Niort

1.04

Valenciennes creates 32% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 94 away

1.19

creates per match

0.83

1.26

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Valenciennes

1.19

Niort

0.83

allows per match

Valenciennes

1.26

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw

72%

Valenciennes or Niort

73%

Draw or Niort

56%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+

21%

Niort wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals

75%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

40%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

16%

Niort 1+ goals

65%

Niort 2+ goals

28%

Niort 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

61%

Niort (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 109 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.55 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.19 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Niort attack 0.83 + Valenciennes defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Valenciennes scores more

44%

level

27%

Niort scores more

28%

Valenciennes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Sans

Niort · D

7.7

Match Events

2'

I. Sissoko↳ V. Jacob

20'

Bryan Passi

21'

T. Chevalier← J. Romil

29'

38'

38'

40'

46'

49'

54'

63'

M. Chergui← K. Cabral

81'

Bryan Passi

81'

Bryan Passi

84'

B. Doukansy← A. Leautey

87'

Valentin Jacob

87'

Q. Bena← V. Jacob

90'

L. Ameka← I. Sissoko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValenciennesNiort

Overview

69%Possession31%

21Total Shots7

2Corners2

12Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots7

4On Target2

12Off Target3

5Blocked2

14Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

575Total Passes253

493Accurate Passes173

86%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards2

3Offsides2