Niort 0–1 Valenciennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Valenciennes

I. Hamache 30'

8/30/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort41%

×Draw28%

Valenciennes31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.06

Niort

1.25

Valenciennes

1.06

Niort creates 18% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 109 away

1.09

creates per match

0.90

1.22

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Valenciennes

0.90

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Valenciennes

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Niort or draw

69%

Niort or Valenciennes

72%

Draw or Valenciennes

59%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

18%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

71%

Niort 2+ goals

36%

Niort 3+ goals

13%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

65%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

29%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

56%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Valenciennes defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Niort scores more

41%

level

28%

Valenciennes scores more

31%

Niort at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

I. Hamache

Valenciennes · M

8.0

Match Events

28'

Charles Kabore

30'

I. Hamache↳ A. Zinga

46'

U. Bonnet← A. Boutoutaou

60'

J. Olaitan← C. Kaboré

73'

N. Diliberto← M. Noubissi

76'

Y. El Amri← A. Zinga

81'

I. Bakayoko← A. Sagna

88'

M. Picouleau← M. Kaba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortValenciennes

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots12

1Corners3

9Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target7

3Off Target3

1Blocked2

3Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

473Total Passes384

386Accurate Passes288

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1