Valenciennes 3–1 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Valenciennes

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bastia

A. Knockaert 61'

A. Jung 53', 27' (pen)

Y. Okou 8'

1/27/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade du Hainaut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Valenciennes39%

×Draw28%

Bastia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValenciennesExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.15

Valenciennes

1.26

Bastia

1.15

Valenciennes creates 10% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 91 away

1.19

creates per match

1.03

1.26

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Valenciennes

1.19

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Valenciennes

1.26

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valenciennes ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Valenciennes or draw

66%

Valenciennes or Bastia

72%

Draw or Bastia

61%

Winning margin

Valenciennes wins by 2+

17%

Bastia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Valenciennes 1+ goals

72%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

36%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

13%

Bastia 1+ goals

68%

Bastia 2+ goals

32%

Bastia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

54%

Bastia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valenciennes at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 109 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valenciennes attack 1.19 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Bastia attack 1.03 + Valenciennes defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Valenciennes scores more

39%

level

28%

Bastia scores more

34%

Valenciennes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Valenciennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Jung

Valenciennes · F

9.0

Match Events

8'

Y. Okou↳ F. Bianchini

20'

Anthony Knockaert

27'

A. JungPenalty

34'

46'

53'

57'

57'

58'

L. Woudenberg← J. Poha

61'

A. Knockaert↳ A. Jung

69'

Migouel Alfarela

73'

M. Siby← F. Bianchini

73'

F. Tomi← B. Santelli

77'

A. Boutoutaou← A. Knockaert

77'

M. Oyewusi← M. Lilepo

81'

M. Loubatières← C. Vincent

81'

R. Yapi← F. Bohnert

89'

I. Hamache← Flamarion

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValenciennesBastia

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots10

6Corners2

14Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots10

6On Target4

3Off Target5

2Blocked1

9Inside Box4

2Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

386Total Passes416

295Accurate Passes314

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Ligue 2: Valenciennes 3–1 Bastia

Valenciennes beat Bastia 3-1 in Ligue 2 on January 27, 2024.

Goals: Y. Okou (8'), A. Jung (27' pen, 53'), A. Knockaert (61').

Bastia controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade du Hainaut in Valenciennes.

Valenciennes vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Valenciennes 3–1 Bastia